Tomorrow

I may not be able to post another bracket, so here are all my "what-ifs"

If Duke beats Florida State, nothing changes.

If Florida State beats Duke, FSU rises to the 3 line knocking Wake Forest down to a 4.

If SFA beats UTSA, no change.

If UTSA beats SFA, UTSA moves into the field as a 16 seed. They would be in play-in game versus Chatanooga. Northridge would move up to a 15, Robert Morris would move up to a 14, and S.F.A. would be out.

If Purdue beats Ohio State, Purdue moves up to a 4 seed and Gonzaga moves down to a 5. Ohio State remains idle.

If Ohio State beats Purdue, Ohio State moves up to a 6 seed and Clemson falls to a 7. Purdue remains idle.

If Tennessee beats Miss. St., Tennessee moves up to a 6 and Clemson falls to a 7.

If Mississippi State beats Tennessee, Mississippi State moves into the field as a 13 seed, Northern Iowa moves up to a 12, and St. Mary's is removed from the field. Tennessee remains idle.

Tourney Field, March 14th

On this edition, I have added Geographic Locations. Although I tried my best to obey the committee's guidelines, I pretty much disregarded the guideline that states that teams that played earlier this year shouldn't be placed in the same mini-pod. The reason is because I don't have every teams schedule memorized, and it would be quite painstaking to look it up.

Projected Tournament Field, March 14th, 1:00 AM CT
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Dayton 1 Louisville 16 CS-N'ridge 8 Cal 9 . Okla St. Miami 4 Florida St 13 American 5 Arizona St. 12 St. Mary's Boise 3 Missouri 14 . Akron 6 Utah 11 Boston C. Minneapolis 7 Marquette 10 Creighton 2 Mich St. 15 Cornell

Kansas City 1 Memphis 16 Morehead St. 8 Texas 9 USC Philadelphia 4 Syracuse 13 ND St 5 Purdue 12 VCU Miami 3 Wake Forest 14 S.F. Austin 6 Xavier 11 Siena Philadelphia 7 Ohio State 10 Tex A&M 2 UCONN 15 Radford

Greensboro 1 UNC 16 Morgan St. 8 BYU 9 Minnesota Portland 4 Gonzaga 13 West. Ky 5 UCLA 12 Cleve. St Minneaplis 3 Villanova 14 ETSU 6 Clemson 11 Dayton Kansas City 7 Tennessee 10 Michigan 2 Oklahoma 15 Portland St

Dayton 1 Pittsburgh 16 ASU/Chat 8 Butler 9 S.D. State Boise 4 Kansas 13 N. Iowa 5 Illinois 12 Temple Portland 3 Washington 14 Binghamton 6 WVU 11 Utah St Greensboro 7 LSU 10 Wisconsin 2 Duke 15 Rob. Mor.

Notes: Due to the many seeding issues that arise when trying to place teams into actual geographic locations, I took the liberty of using the committee's "One Seed Rule". The following teams were moved, and their true seed is noted:

Creighton (11)
Utah State (10)
Temple (11)
Siena (12)




The ever-shrinking Bubble:

1. Penn St.
2. So. Car
3. Maryland
4. Arizona


All Done, and It Doesn't Look Good:

1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Providence
4. Davidson
5. UNLV


Bids by Conference - Big 10 (7), Big East (7), ACC (6), Big 12 (6), Pac 10 (5), MWC (3), Atlantic 10 (3), SEC (2), MVC (2), WCC (2), Horizon (2)

Moving Up - Ohio State, Utah, , USC, Florida St


Moving Down - Florida, So. Car, Dayton, Wisconsin

New Additions - Akron
Happy Trails - Buffalo

And for your consideration, an NIT bracket:

1 seeds - Penn State, South Carolina, Maryland, Arizona
2 seeds - Florida, Providence, Davidson, Auburn
3 seeds - New Mexico,Virginia Tech, Illinois St., Kansas St.
4 seeds - Mississippi St., Miami Fl, Baylor, Northwestern
5 seeds - Niagara, Kentucky, Tulsa, Notre Dame
6 seeds - UAB, Georgetown, Washington St., Nebrask
7 seeds - Cincinnati, Rhode Island, Nevada, Weber St.
8 seeds - Duquesne, UT-Martin, Bowling Green, Jacksonville

And why not, how about a CBI:

1 seeds - UWGB, Wyoming, UTEP, Northeastern
2 seeds - Houston, Charleston, Miami Oh, Boise St.
3 seeds - St. Joe's, Bradley, Old Dominion, Wright St.
4 seeds - UALR, Oakland, Hofstra, Portland


Due to Virginia's experience last year in the CBI, and the thought that major conference schools are unlikely to draw their dissappointed fanbase to the arena to make up for the entry cost of the tournament ($60,000), I have omitted the following teams:

Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, N.C. State

The One Seed Breakdown

With UCONN and Pitt both losing today, the 1 seed picture suddenly becomes extremely murky. Time for a Breakdown!

1. UNC - A lock for a 1 seed.

2. Memphis - Will earn a 1 seed if they win C-USA tournament.

3. Michigan State - Will earn a 1 seed if they win the Big 10 tournament.

4. Louisville - Will earn a 1 seed with a win over Villanova tomorrow.

5. Duke/Wake Forest - Will earn a 1 seed if they win the ACC tournament, and one of the 3 previous things does not occur.

6. Pitt - Will earn a 1 seed if 2 of the previous 4 things do not occur.

7. UConn - Will earn a 1 seed if 3 of the 4 things Numbered 2-5 do not occur. (Confusing, eh?)

8. Washington, Missouri, Villanova - If none of things listed in steps 2-5 occur, and any of these teams win their conference tournament, they could be in line for a 1 seed.

10. If none of the things listed in steps 2-5, or 8 occur, I would give the final one seed to Memphis.
It's amazing that 11 teams could still conceivably get a 1 seed. Washington, Missouri and Villanova are EXTREME reaches.

Tourney Field, March 13th

Projected Tournament Field, March 13th, 1:00 AM CT
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1 Louisville 16 CS-N'ridge 8 Butler 9 . Wisconsin 4 Kansas 13 American 5 Florida St 12 Siena 3 Missouri 14 . ETSU 6 WVU 11 S.D. State 7 LSU 10 Utah St 2 Mich St. 15 Cornell

1 Memphis 16 Morehead St. 8 Okla St. 9 Minnesota 4 Syracuse 13 Buffalo 5 Clemson 12 VCU 3 Wake Forest 14 S.F. Austin 6 Purdue 11 Creighton 7 Texas 10 So. Car 2 UCONN 15 Radford

1 UNC 16 Morgan St. 8 Cal 9 Ohio State 4 Xavier 13 West. Ky 5 Gonzaga 12 Florida 3 Villanova 14 ND St 6 Arizona St. 11 Boston C. 7 BYU 10 Michigan 2 Oklahoma 15 Portland St

1 Pittsburgh 16 ASU/Chat 8 Tennessee 9 . Dayton 4 UCLA 13 N. Iowa 5 Illinois 12 Cleve. St 3 Washington 14 Binghamton 6 Marquette 11 Penn St. 7 Utah 10 Tex A&M 2 Duke 15 Rob. Mor.

Could Make It Right Now:

1. St. Mary's
2. Arizona

Can Still Earn It:
1 USC
2. Maryland
3. Va Tech
4. Kentucky (Would need wins over LSU and South Carolina, and loss in finals would have to be against Tennessee...and they would still need some help)

All Done, and It Doesn't Look Good:

1. New Mexico
2. Providence
3. Davidson
4. UNLV


Bids by Conference - Big 10 (8), Big East (7), ACC (6), Big 12 (6), Pac 10 (4), SEC (4), MWC (3), Atlantic 10 (2), MVC (2)


Moving Up - Syracuse, WVU, Okla St., S.D. State


Moving Down - UNLV, UCONN, Kansas, Clemson

New Additions - S.D. State
Happy Trails - Arizona

Key Games - Thursday

A rundown of the most important games of the day:


8 Providence vs. 1 Louisville - 12:00 ET

Considering only 9 of 55 brackets over at The Bracket Project project Providence as In the tournament, they most likely must win this game to get a bid. If they do, they are a sure thing.

9 Northwestern vs. 8 Minnesota - 12:00 ET

It's tough to imagine Minnesota losing this game and making the field, and it's impossible for Northwestern. If Minnesota wins, I think they will definitely make it. Northwestern needs this one and another over Michigan State to get into the conversation.

9 Miami Fl vs 8 Virginia Tech - 12:00 ET

The loser is completely out of it. The winner stays alive, but would need at least a win over UNC and likely another win in the semifinals.

5 Marquette vs 4 Villanova - 2:30 ET

This is just a great match-up. Villanova could get up to a 2 seed if they were to win the Big East tournament, if they lose this game, they could go as low as a 5 (probably not). Marquette will not fall any lower than a 6 seed, and winning the Big East tournament could catapult them up to a 2 seed, if things fell right.

5 Arizona vs 4 Arizona St. - 3:00 ET

While Arizona State is safely in, I'm sure they'd like to score a few wins in the Pac 10 tournament and improve their seed. I have them as a 6 right now, some projections have them as low as an 8. A loss may drop them to the 7-9 seed range. Meanwhile, this is do or die for Arizona. While most projections have them in, a loss would drop that considerably. If they lose they will be squarely on the bubble, I'll probably have them out.

5 Texas vs 4 Kansas St. - 3:00 ET

Kansas State needs this win, and in my estimation a win in the semifinals, to get an at-large bid. Texas would end up in an 8/9 or 7/10 game if they lost, but could get up as high as a 4 if they were to win the tournament.

5 UNLV vs 4 San Diego St. - 5:30 ET

2 Bubblemates square off here. The winner will make it, the loser wont. Should be exciting!

7 Oklahoma St. vs 2 Oklahoma - 7:00 ET

Oklahoma State can save itself a lot of sweat by winning this one. Oklahoma needs to win to stay in the 1 seed conversation.

7 WVU vs 2 Pitt - 7:00 ET

A loss from Pitt here may cost them a 1 seed. WVU looks to improve on a likely 7 or 8 seed.

6 Syracuse vs 3 UCONN - 9:30 ET

UCONN absolutely needs this one to remain a 1 seed. Syracuse could really elevate their season by making a run in the Big East tournament, winning it (and beating UConn, Pitt, and Louisville) could get them a 2 seed.


Other Bubble teams that need to win to remain alive -

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss
USC vs. Cal
Michigan vs. Iowa
Penn St. vs. Indiana
Maryland vs. North Carolina St.
Florida vs. Arkansas
New Mexico vs. Wyoming

I wouldn't classify these as "must wins", but a loss could serioiusly damper their at-large chances.

Boston College vs. Virginia
Dayton vs. Richmond

Tournament Field, March 12th, 1:00 AM

Projected Tournament Field, March 12th, 1:00 AM CT
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1 UCONN 16 CS-N'ridge 8 Butler 9 . So. Car 4 Missouri 13 American 5 Florida St 12 Penn St. 3 Kansas 14 . ETSU 6 LSU 11 Arizona 7 WVU 10 Utah St 2 Mich St. 15 Cornell

1 Memphis 16 Morehead St. 8 Dayton 9 Wisconsin 4 Clemson 13 Buffalo 5 Syracuse 12 VCU 3 Wake Forest 14 S.F. Austin 6 Purdue 11 Florida 7 Cal 10 Okla St. 2 Louisville 15 Radford

1 UNC 16 Morgan St. 8 Texas 9 Ohio State 4 UCLA 13 West. Ky 5 Gonzaga 12 Siena 3 Villanova 14 ND St 6 Arizona St. 11 Boston C. 7 BYU 10 Minnesota 2 Oklahoma 15 Portland St

1 Pittsburgh 16 ASU/Chat 8 Tennessee 9 . Tex A&M 4 Xavier 13 N. Iowa 5 Illinois 12 Cleve. St 3 Washington 14 Binghamton 6 Marquette 11 Creighton 7 Utah 10 Michigan 2 Duke 15 Rob. Mor.

Notes: Michigan is true 9 seed. South Carolina is true 10 seed.
Left Out:

1.S.D. State
2. UNLV
3. St. Mary's
4. New Mex
5. Providence


Clinging
6. USC
7. Kansas St.
8. Maryland
9. Miami Fl
10. Northwestern
11. Va Tech



Bids by Conference - Big 10 (8), Big East (7), ACC (6), Big 12 (6), Pac 10 (5), SEC (4), MWC (3), Atlantic 10 (2), MVC (2)


Moving Up - Michigan, Syracuse, Tex A&M, Kansas


Moving Down - UNLV, Maryland, Penn St., LSU

New Additions - Portland St, Cleveland St
Happy Trails - Weber St, S.D. State

Conference Tournaments - Bubble Teams

Time to breakdown the bubble.

First, these are the teams I currently project in that I think could still potentially miss the field:

Wisconsin, Ohio State, South Carolina, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Arizona, Florida, Boston College, Creighton, Penn St., St. Mary's

Here are the teams I think have a relatively good shot of earning a bid in the last week:

UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico, Providence

Here are the teams that I think are still alive, but would need quite a run to get an at-large berth:

USC, Kansas State, Northwestern, Maryland, Miami Florida, Virginia Tech

Here are the teams that are done playing, but could still get an at-large berth:

Davidson

Now, onto Conference Tournaments.

The Big Ten

This tournament clearly has the most tournament implications around it. The 4/5 matchup is between Wisconsin and Ohio State. The winner is absolutely going to make the field. The loser has a chance to miss the field, but I doubt it. Ohio State is a tad more safe than Wisconsin because they are .500 against the RPI top 100. The 8/9 opening round game pits Minnesota and Northwestern against each other. It looks like the loser of this one will not make it (I suppose Minnesota could, but it would take some help). Minnesota probably does not need to beat Michigan State also, but Northwestern definitely does. The Wildcats may even need to get to the finals to earn their bid. In other opening round action Michigan takes on Iowa. I think a loss here would be pretty inexcusable for Michigan. That would put them under the .500 mark in league play, which is a big no-no. On the other hand, if they win, I think they'll make it regardless of their quarterfinal vs Illinois. Penn State becomes an extremely interesting case. They have a terrible Non-conference resume and an RPI of only 61, but they have 3 wins against the RPI top 25. Losing to Indiana to kick it off would void their entire season. If they lose to Purdue, they are really going to have to sweat it out, and I see them narrowly missing. Getting into the semis is a must if they want to feel secure.

My picks - Northwestern, Michigan, Penn State in the 1st round, MSU, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois in the quarters, and Purdue over Wisconsin in the finals.

The Big 12

Not much that is too intriguing as far as the bubble goes. Oklahoma State needs to take care of Iowa State and they are a sure thing. However, a loss would be disastrous and I think they would be left out. Texas A&M may not need to win vs. Texas Tech, but they'd feel a lot more comfortable if they did. Kansas State won a chaotic tiebreaker and earned a 1st round Bye. They will likely have to face Texas in the quarterfinal. A loss and obviously they have no chance. A win would go a long way, but unless they get into the finals, I think it's too little too late.

Picks - Baylor, Texas, Okla St., TAMU in the opening round. Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M into the semis, in the finals Kansas takes care of Oklahoma.

The Big East

Cincinnati, Georgetown, and Notre Dame are probably too far gone at this point, and will have to win 5 games in 5 days to make the field. Providence is the lone bubble candidate in this conference. Beating the 9/16 winner (probably Cincinnati) will keep them in the conversation on Selection Sunday. But to make my final predicted field, they'll have to beat #1 seeded Louisville as well (unless a whole lot of other teams lose).

Picks - St. John's upsets Georgetown in the opening round. No upsets in the 2nd round. Syracuse takes out UCONN to make the semis, then beats Pitt, before losing to the champion, Villanova.

The ACC

This is one tournament that is going to filled with desperation. Va Tech vs Miami in the 8/9 matchup is a play-out game. Those two teams, along with Maryland, all probably need a run to the finals to warrant consideration. Boston College will not make the field if they lose to Virginia, but they don't need a long run like their bubble-mates do.

Picks - Boston College is only top seed to win in the 1st round. UNC, Wake, Duke, and Georgia Tech are your semifinalists. UNC over Wake in the championship.

The Pac 10

Arizona faces a huge test in the quarterfinals, taking on Arizona State. A win and they're in. A loss might be survivable, but it might not be. It really would depend on other outcomes, like BC, Penn State, Minnesota, and Oklahoma State. USC could still find a way to make the field, but this would require wins against Cal and UCLA. A finals loss would bring them up to 8-12 versus the RPI top 100. This is still probably not enough, considering their two questionable losses to Oregon State and Stanford.

Picks - No upsets all tournament.

The SEC

Considering their first two opponents are Arkansas and Auburn, I believe that Florida needs to make the semifinals to make the big dance. South Carolina must avoid a loss to Mississippi State or Georgia, and Kentucky needs to win the whole thing.

Picks - Kentucky, Miss. St., Vandy and Florida on Day 1. Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Auburn on Day 2. South Carolina and Auburn in the finals.....War Eagle.

The Mountain West

The 4/5 matchup is huge here. San Diego State versus UNLV. The loser really doesn't have a shot. If UNLV wins they are definitely in. If San Diego State wins, they are probably in. Making it to the finals would lock it up. Meanwhile, it's tough to say what New Mexico needs to do. Obviously, they need to get by Wyoming in the quarterfinals. If they made it into the finals, I think they would make it. However a loss in the semis to Utah would leave them about where they are right now, just out.

Picks - Air Force finally gets a win. BYU, SD State, Utah, and New Mexico advance, where San Diego State and New Mexico both score upsets. New Mexico takes home the crown, and 4 MWC teams end up in.

Atlantic 10

Dayton ought not lose their first game.
Picks - Dayton over Temple in the finals.

If all of this were to happen like I have picked, and their were no upset-champions in leagues like the Horizon, C-USA, or the WAC, these would be the changes to my projected field -

Moving out - Florida, Arizona, Minnesota

Moving in - New Mexico, San Diego State, Auburn

Penn State would make it as the last team in, and Providence would be the closest team left out.